Butterfly – Best Forex Education

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Search Butterfly Pattern MetaTrader 4 Forex Indicator - Download Free!

Search Butterfly Pattern MetaTrader 4 Forex Indicator - Download Free! submitted by ForexMTindicators to u/ForexMTindicators [link] [comments]

Search Butterfly Pattern MetaTrader 4 Forex Indicator - Download Free!

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GBPJPY Trend Invalidation Signals and Contingency Plans

GBPJPY Trend Invalidation Signals and Contingency Plans
Took multiple losses on GBPJPY as it ran through all the trend continuation setups, and the persistence of how it has done this move is something that gives us reason to re-assess trade plans, and be diligent on risks as well as opportunities the conditions we are now in may present.

I feel like I've seen this movie before. Usually when getting squeezed in a trend continuation, there are a few hits you have to take and then there is a big pay off. As a general rule, the better the move will be the harder it is to position for. So early losses on this were all within the acceptable margin of error in this strategy (I think I also made setup errors, which was bad. I can do better on that). After we ran some more setups (that looked fully valid at time of execution), I noped out. Stopped selling, and waited to see what happened.

Last time I remember being on the wrong side of such a fierce move of this form on GBPJPY was similar. Done well shorting, scalped some buys at a support, then reversed into the "correction" - and it went parabolic against me. I remember this well, because in the coming week there were news reports of the GBP having it's best day/week in a yeadecade (I forget specifics, but GBP was in the news for the rally). In the week after that, the high was made .... because that was when Brexit happened.

What happened there, from a charting perspective, is we went into a 2 week corrective cycle and then started another impulsive wave. If this happens we may see something spectacular in GBPJPY in the near term. This may feature a record breaking rally (or at least strong one) into 145, and even 155 (current price 130). From there, we may start a new trend taking the market into the large chart forecasts of 89 and 61.

I can retire if that happens. Absolutely. I'm going to plan, with various contingencies, for something like that possibly happening. In this post I''ll show what warnings signs we got over the last days as sellers. Where our main dangers will be as buyers. The levels as which we can be more sure buyers have won out in the short term, and also where the possible spikes low could come and how we'd trade them / what we'd do next.

I'll use MT4 charting for this analysis, since it will require a lot of different fibs and patterns assessment, I find fibs on MT4 quicker to work with than cTrader.

The Big Gartley Pattern


So the first thing we want to establish is where the buyers are coming from. Double bottom is accurate, but a bit vague. If we look closer, we can see the daily chart pinging off the 61.8 and 76 fib levels. This would be consistent with a Gartley pattern, and this would be a bullish reversal pattern (If successful). We have a couple probable scenarios here. One is a big break and move lower, and the other is a persistent move up in a small time frame trending chart form.

https://preview.redd.it/ycjwj3bsxmk31.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=94198bcff8cdf3e9b4cae306496bd91b5477a7f0
Let's look closer and see what the last days of trading have suggested to us about this.
Here is the 1 hour chart around the 76 level.
https://preview.redd.it/1c31uqv4qmk31.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=47df97d3f4f31238bacbb20282f8495399e01527
We've possibly formed the start of a second trend leg in the recent move up. Our best move here would be wait for a dip, buy into that and then run the trend upwards. We should see more strong moves like today, and these should be in nice structured form giving us easy entries and exits. This would be a good scenario for trading.
If a spike out is to form from this level, we'd now have it in a clear butterfly pattern. So we'd look for a 1.61 extension of this swing giving us a projected low of 125 area. This would be a harder move to trade. We either have to keep selling into the resistance levels and risk multiple small losses, or wait for momentum downwards and use breakout strategies. I feel method one has failed this week. We can perhaps look more at method two in a close under 128 (which will not happen if we are to trend).

https://preview.redd.it/djz31dxdrmk31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce05f051a785177e7598e8c4f430224183366013
As buyers, the possibility of this take out low move is our main danger. We have to be aware this can happen and it will be a fast move if it does. Risk control is important.

Bullish Scenarios

For now I am going to work on trade plans for if price remains above 128.50 and indicates bullish momentum. I want to work on targets and then reversal areas.

When we use the analysis above and consider we may be entering into big corrective leg, we can consider that this might be a 'ping swing' like move.

https://preview.redd.it/s9fyuyhmsmk31.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aa69ac8b99bbd3874593a60fcf6e76b930be911
Remember the main characteristics of a ping swing. It's very strong. The move is parabolic. There's a spike out of major levels, and then there is an impulse leg.
Weigh that against the price action I described the last time I seen the same setup on GBBPJPY running into Brexit. The market followed that same template of price movements, and then came down in spectacular fashion.
This is where our main opportunity is, and this is where it seem the smart way to be betting is at this time. If the lows made here are taken out, we can look for positions around 125 to load up for this (a spike out and rally is still valid).
In the immediate term, we can just buy dips. Use tight stops and get high RR if it runs up, have very small losses to the downside. A correction from 130.20 to 128.50 gives us a great buying opportunity to get started in this move (buying over 130 but under 130.60 I think is a bad trade. Better to wait)
If we can establish a good buy position and see a ping swing move (which would be 2,000 pips - and GBPJPY can do this without many pullbacks, it's wild) the profit potential on this is enormous. Very small risks can be taken for extreme profits on the other end. If we do this and make good profits in the run up to that, we can then use a portion of these profits to position aggressively on the 61.8 spike out, and maybe have big positions in a decade long breakout to the downside in GBPJPY.
Whether or not there is a spike out low, when buying our first target is 145.00. This is either buying from 128.50 or 125 if that trade does not work out.
It would be very dangerous to sell if there is a spike out low into 125. Selling here could be brutal in the whip against you (as could selling in the leg we have but not getting out quick). For some perspective on this, GBPJPY went from 145 to 160 in only a couple strong trading days the last time we had conditions similar to this. The possibility of this, makes it a bad time to be a seller - horrible time to be a stubborn one.

Wrap up.

No buys 130 - 130.50. Possible buys if there is a break of this.
Sells possible in this area, but risky. Not great RR. I'd not bother.
Buy level 1 - 128.50. 143 could be swing target here.
128 major bear break area. Danger of fast move here. Cut buys.
125 if met in spike, big buying area. Target 143 and stop 123 (tighter with price action).
145 first major upside resis. If we break this, 155.
Absolutely no selling into parabolic moves on GBPJPY at levels not mentioned here, isn't worth it.
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Time to Sell NZDJPY Again

Sell time again. Bigger sell this time. We might see a strong downtrend through today from this level. We have nominal risk selling from hre at 74.40

https://preview.redd.it/dwuhwazj6jc21.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=60a4d995623481eebc9de8f5571c63864bbd3e0c

Copy this account/track outcome of trades here.https://www.reddit.com/ForexCopy/comments/ajc9fq/intraday_ecn_copying_best/

Update: Butterfly top strikes again.

https://preview.redd.it/8quqw988fjc21.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=57f58114e5f714f1f2c2621bfe33b73895f13d83

"BuT tHe AlGos!!!!!!"

Update: Risk off. Now we get to go for 15-20% gain for only 2 pips risked.

https://preview.redd.it/utol53fxfjc21.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=76a8d19b01ed48f82fd98663919185521b4880aa

Update - Kinda a sidenote. This is the same pattern we may see on the S&P500. We have the butterfly top, 127 extension of that and start of a new rally. If we get that second butterfly top spiking out 3,000 - this is such an easy sell. It may well just be a licence to print money.

https://preview.redd.it/l2thnykehjc21.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ffda45a95c5a2722f44a7b7b8f0ec74dd9d8b11

Update: Profit locked. Now let's see if market wants to gives us the jackpot pay out.

https://preview.redd.it/exga9maaijc21.png?width=1353&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6ccef2d73dea7f3639c66d8024047f76dc70571

Update: Massive selling opportunity now. 1:30 RR can be hit here. 73.30 area is the target. Price action may be strong to allow for tight tailing stops.


https://preview.redd.it/94yzaqjivjc21.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=b327eb3aeb2dbfdf76fd74cfffd954cf10c144fa
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Harmonic Patterns - The Butterfly Pattern Introduction by ... Harmonic Trading - Bullish Butterfly Pattern - YouTube $4,000+ Bullish Butterfly Trade (Old Forex Training) Fibonacci Trading - Butterfly Pattern  Forex Trading Strategies FOREX TRADING: Butterfly Rules and LIVE Butterfly - YouTube Learn How To Trade The Butterfly Pattern

Harmonic patterns are the geometric pattern of a forex chart that combines with the price and Fibonacci retracement and extension. Harmonic patterns work as a profitable forex trading strategy. We can distinguish it in two classification- internal pattern and external pattern. Bat pattern and Gartley pattern are the examples of internal pattern, and the Butterfly pattern and Crab pattern are ... Butterfly forex pattern indicator is a special indicator that is used to detect specific butterfly harmonic pattern in the market trend. The butterfly pattern is a very easy indicator system. It works the same way you want. It consists of four distinct swings in the market. Each swing has a relationship with others. Bullish and butterfly patterns use the same ratios. The butterfly pattern is ... The Butterfly pattern should be a very symmetrical pattern in its formation and structure. As with the Gartley “222” pattern, the Butterfly pattern is formed with four legs. The difference is that the last leg (the CD leg) of the Butterfly pattern will extend beyond the X point and will move toward the 1.272 or 1.618 expansion of XA. The BC leg will also be an extension, but the completion ... Conclusion - Butterfly Pattern. The main characteristics of the Butterfly pattern forex are that it’s not a rigorous reversal pattern. The butterfly pattern trading is more about a corrective price structure that usually establishes important swing low and high prices. You can also read our winning news trading strategy. The Harmonic Pattern Butterfly is closely related to the Gartley 222 pattern with the main difference being that the Butterfly pattern’s CD extends beyond the XA leg. The Gartley Butterfly pattern is also identified by the classic ‘M’ and ‘W’ patterns. (see more about other forex patterns). The Butterfly pattern was one of the many harmonic patterns developed by H.M Gartley which ... Das Butterfly Pattern ist eine ausgeprägte 5-Punkt-Extensionsstruktur, die von Bryce Gilmore entdeckt und von Scott Carney weiter definiert wurde. Es hat spezifische Fibonacci -Messungen für jeden Punkt innerhalb seiner Struktur, und es ist wichtig zu beachten, dass D kein Punkt ist, sondern eher eine Zone, in der der Preis sich wahrscheinlich umkehren wird, die so genannte ... Bullish Butterfly Pattern b. Bearish Butterfly pattern. The bearish Butterfly occurs in a downtrend and identifies a price reversal at point D. Traders take short positions at point D with stop-losses above it. In the bearish version, the AB leg retraces up to 79.9% of the XA leg. The BC leg retraces to 96.9% of the AB leg. CD shows an ...

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Harmonic Patterns - The Butterfly Pattern Introduction by ...

Learn How To Trade The Butterfly Pattern - Duration: 9:28. NetPicks Smart Trading Made Simple 4,101 views. 9:28. Forex Trading - Gartley pattern tutorial ... "Harmonic Patterns - The Butterfly Pattern Introduction by Scott Carney" is an introduction of one of the most popular structures in the arsenal of harmonic ... Add this fibonacci butterfly pattern into your forex trading strategies as trading this usually ends up with a high win low risk opportunity. This requires a strict rule set strategy and should be ... https://ajtrading.kartra.com/page/fxY66 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aj_capital_m/ FOREX TRADING: Butterfly Rules and LIVE Butterfly Follow me on Twi... The Butterfly pattern, discovered by Bryce Gilmore, is a reversal chart pattern that consists of four distinct swings in the market. The rules to identify the Butterfly trading pattern are strict ... Scott Carney presents the definition of the Bullish Butterfly pattern. The alignment of ratios initially defined in his 1998 book, The Harmonic Trader, has b...

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